In December, the substantive work of the Platform of the Russian Opposition at PACE begins. We would like to offer several ideas to the platform’s participants. We propose that the following topics not be overlooked in the platform’s work:
• Promotion of democratic values and an anti-war agenda within Russia.
• Coordination of the role of the Russian opposition in actions aimed at ending the war in Ukraine.
• Discussion of the state and prospects of preserving liberal democracy in EU countries in light of the threat of a revival of authoritarian regimes, which can currently be observed in several member states of the Union.
A question arises: what does the Russian Platform have to do with this? The point is that representatives of the Russian opposition are direct witnesses to how Russia in the 1990s embarked on the path of liberal democracy and, despite numerous obstacles, continued moving in that direction until the early 21st century. However, over the past 25 years liberal democracy in Russia has been effectively displaced by a corrupt dictatorship. Russians understand well what mistakes were made and how they led to the establishment of Putin’s absolute power and his military aggression against Ukraine.
Analyzing the current situation, we understand that Europe’s influence on the possible democratization of Russia depends heavily on Europe’s own ability to remain sufficiently strong (while preserving its democratic foundations). Only in this way will it be able to use its influence most effectively when the moment arises to affect Russia’s choice.
Unfortunately, today the general economic, social and, consequently, political situation allows us to speak not only of Europe’s inability to influence developments in Russia effectively, but even of its lack of readiness to act according to an optimal plan should such an opportunity arise (for instance, if objective preconditions for a peace agreement are created through U.S. efforts).
On the subject of a peace treaty.
It is impossible to predict precisely when — or whether at all — the hostilities will cease. Moreover, it is possible that this will not occur even within the coming year.
The most important topics of peace negotiations should be, step by step, the exchange of prisoners of war, the release of all civilians, and finally the release of all political prisoners in Russia. Only after this should sanctions against Russia be eased.
Current events suggest that an attempt is being made on the international level to impose a position previously coordinated between Trump and Putin, while ignoring the interests of Ukraine and the European countries. If such a scenario unfolds, the two leaders may move further toward forming a new system of global security — a “new Yalta”, as political analysts have already written.
Until now, international security has relied on the system developed by the UN and based on the Declaration of Human Rights and the principle of the Rule of Law. Yet what we observe today almost daily shows that the political practice of Trump and Putin consciously relies on the “right of the strong”. As a result, we may expect collusion between states governed by “strongmen” in order to divide the world into “spheres of responsibility” and rule them from a position of force.
If the plan of Putin and Trump prevails in the peace negotiations (against the positions of the EU and Ukraine), Europe’s far-right parties will receive additional electoral support, which may allow them to obtain a dominant position in subsequent elections in certain countries. Clearly, this issue should also cause serious concern and be discussed at PACE. All the more so since public discourse now often contains predictions that in the next one to two years a far-right party — Alternative for Germany — may come to power in Germany. One of its leaders has already called for “revising the results of the Second World War”, described the Holocaust Memorial as a “monument of shame”, and urged a “180-degree turn” in memory politics.
We propose discussing at the next meeting of the Russian Platform at PACE the possibility of submitting all these issues to the upcoming PACE session with the participation of Russian politicians and human rights defenders residing abroad.
Lev Ponomaryov, President of the Andrei Sakharov Institute
Nikolai Koblyakov, President of Russie Liberté
P.S.
Arguments supporting these theses are presented in the recent publications “Saving Liberal Democracy — Saving Civilization” and “There Is No Way Without Paragraph 29.”